story by Ryan Saylor
rsaylor@thecitywire.com
Primaries take place in Oklahoma on June 24 and all eyes appear to be on the Republican primary to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn, a Republican from Muskogee.
The two leading candidates are U.S. Rep. James Lankford of Edmond and former Speaker of the Oklahoma House T.W. Shannon. Polling in the race initially showed Lankford with a lead of 36%, but as the election has progressed, the race has narrowed.
The most recent poll by SoonerPoll.com for KWTV in Oklahoma City and KOTV in Tulsa has Lankford polling at 34%, while Shannon is trailing by only two points, making the race a statistical tie. Sen. Randy Brogdon, R-Owasso, is a distant third at 5%. Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com, said his poll — conducted from May 5 through May 10 — likely caught the men in a tie as Shannon was continuing his surge in the polls.
RURAL VS. URBAN POLITICS
As for why Shannon, a Lawton native who was largely unknown to many Oklahomans before entering the Senate race, is surging, Shapard said it is a mix of urban versus rural and Oklahoma City versus Tulsa.
"If you look at my poll numbers, you'll notice that T.W. Shannon is polling well in the first district, which is Tulsa. You couldn't get any further away from Tulsa than being from Lawton. The question is, he's never been on a ballot there and he's beating a sitting congressman. So why is he doing well? People from Tulsa really don't want to vote for an Oklahoma City congressman. And that's true of rural parts of the state, as well."
He said while Lankford had largely won his seat in Congress on a Tea Party platform when he ran to replace now-Gov. Mary Fallin — herself the longest-serving Oklahoma lieutenant governor before becoming a two-term member of Congress from Oklahoma City — his record over the last three and a half years has not aligned with the Tea Party and has not followed that of the retiring Coburn.
"I think when it comes down to it, what candidate do I want to send to (the Senate)? (Voters are asking) does an Oklahoma City congressman represent my rural values? And what would Tom Coburn do and who votes like Tom Coburn does? I think Tom Coburn, who is well liked — the most well liked Senator that the state has ever had — I think Tom Coburn and how he votes could be the litmus test that Oklahoma voters use to (decide who to) vote for."
Shapard, whose firm bills itself as the only independent polling firm, said urban versus rural will continue dominating this race in the final two weeks and that is why he gives the advantage to Shannon.
"I think T.W. Shannon has the most to gain. If you're a voter in Altus, Enid or Poteau, you're going to ask yourself, 'Am I voting for a representative from rural Lawton or Oklahoma City?' That may be the deciding factor."
GOP ADVANTAGE
Whoever wins June 24 stands a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee and becoming the next U.S. Senator from Oklahoma, Shapard said, adding that while he was not attempting to disparage Democrats, "I still think they haven't woken up to reality. This is still a conservative state."
The 2010 election swept Republicans into the offices of Governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and state school superintendent. And the GOP majority has only strengthened in the last few years, becoming what Shapard described as a supermajority, making it even more difficult for a Democrat to win statewide.
Patrick Hates, Sen. Constance N. Johnson and Jim Rogers are all vying for the Democratic nomination, though a SoonerPoll.com survey of likely Democratic voters showed 76.3% still undecided, with none of the three candidates polling in the double digits.
SCHOOL RACE
The other race drawing a lot of attention is the Republican primary for state school superintendent, which has incumbent Janet Barresi polling at only 16.4% compared to 17.1% for Joy Hofmeister and 14.3% for Brian Kelly.
"If candidates are below 50%, they are in trouble. Being lower than 40% is unheard of," Shapard said.
Education reforms have become a hot issue in Oklahoma, which recently repealed the Common Core education standards that have been the cause of debate in political and education circles nationwide over much of the last year. The repeal was co-authored by Shannon and signed into law by Gov. Fallin.
Barresi has attempted other education reforms, but without much luck and he said while Barresi should benefit from the power of incumbency, her lagging poll numbers could spell victory for any of the four Democrats vying to challenge the GOP state school superintendent nominee in the fall.
"Democrats would love to get education back. The entire education establishment is still engrained in the Democratic Party. They have tried their best and in many cases, won in many of (the challenges to) reforms she tried to bring in."
He said whether it was fair or not, Barresi’s attempts at reform and the backlash over Common Core could haunt her in the June 24 primary and in November.
"Common Core has been one of the defining issues of this election. … It is one of those interesting issues that divides both parties. She's just been on the tip of the spear with regard to education reform in the state."
In a state that has more school districts than the state of California, education reforms — including school consolidation — have proven to be unpopular and as a result, June 24 and possibly November could prove to be defining moments for Barresi.
"Whether her doing or not, she may be held responsible for it and elections have consequences," Shapard said.
Should a candidate in any of the primaries held across the state fail to win 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held August 26.